Sunday, June 24, 2012

Demographics Are Killing Republicans


Like most political junkies around the country I watched the President of The United States Barack Obama and the man who wants to take his job Republican nominee and Former Massachusettes Governor Mitt Romney deliver speeches to The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) this past week. Both Candidates clearly realize what an important voting block the Hispanic community is.

The appearance was more important for Governor Romney because polling suggest that he trails the President by huge numbers when it comes to the Latino vote. Romney is clearly paying the price for the position that he took in the GOP Primaries where he wasn't just to the right of Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich on immigration he was to the right of Lou Dobbs.

Being African-American and watching Romney struggle to make his case with Latinos, I wondered about how equally difficult it would be for Romney or any other GOP nominee to make the same case to the Black Community.

Before 1968 black votes were pretty much split evenly among the two political parties, black people liked The New Deal policies put forth by FDR and The Dems, but hated the fact that scumbags like Strom Thurmond and Robert Byrd hid out within the party given their ties to the support of segregation
and The Ku Klux Klan respectively. 1968 however should be thought of in the same manner of 1865, the year slavery was officially ended, as a watershed year for race relations and politics in the U.S.

1968 was the year that Republican Presidential nominee Richard Nixon emplored “The Southern Strategy”. Nixon basically said to disaffected White Southerners, who voted Democrat all their life, but were upset about the recent passages of The Civil Rights Act and The Voting Rights Act ensuring equal treatment under the law for people of color, to vote for him because he would be the guy who would champion their causes.

Over 40 years later The GOP finds themselves as the party of rich middle-aged white guys in a time where it doesn't pay to be. This puts Governor Romney in the akward position of having to speak to NALEO and the NAACP, which he will do next month, knowing that he will garner little support. Latinos are further disenchanted with the Goveronor's refusal to say whether or not he, if elected would reverse the President's executive order that would not deport the children of undocumented individuals who happen to be in the country. As far as the black vote is concerned, if Romney gets more than five percent he and his supporters should pop champaign like they are the Miami Heat.

Romney isn't the first Republican to carry this weight, GOP God Ronald Reagan, whose name brings tears to the eyes of any card carrying conservative, got 14% of the black vote in his 1980 Presidential Campaign. On the surface that is a terrible number, but considering the challenge Reagan faced particularly with disparaging comments about welfare queens and his less than friendly approach towards the black community during his time as California Governor it was not a bad feat. 1980 however was a time when Reagan could overcome his problem with minorities by relying on his support from not just wealthy white married couples, but also white working class men.With America's ever changing demographics Romney doesn't have that luxury.

The Reagan election in '80 was also a peak in black support for the Republican Party in Presidential Elections also. George H.W. Bush and Bob Dole never got close to Bill Clinton in terms of the black vote in 1992 and 1996 respectively, and despite lukewarm feelings for both Al Gore and John Kerry in 2000 and 2004 the best that George W. Bush could muster in terms of black support was the 9% he got against Kerry in his re-election campaign.
At the risk of speaking in generalizations, the thing that the GOP doesn't get is that black people for the most part are not going to vote against their economic interests. When the African-American community looks at the amount of public-sector jobs that have been shedded in the last five years they know exactly where to point their finger. The fact that people of color, black people in particular made up a huge portion of those employees and the fact that Paul Ryan's budget plan, which conservatives love almost as much as they claim to love the Constitution, is reason enough to be skeptical of the GOP's economic plans. The first order of business for President Romney should he occupy the Oval Office is to institute The Ryan Budget which in effect calls for the disappearance of more public sector jobs, which in turn would contribute to a black unemployment rate that now stands at 13.6%

If Republicans can overcome that by proposing policies that don't just focus on free market, government is the boogeyman solutions, the last mountain still may be unscaleable, the mountain is named Barack and Michelle Obama. It cannot be underscored how huge the first family is in Black America, they are rock stars. The Obama's will forever be looked upon like Jackie Robinson and Martin Luther King, people who made history when it seemed almost impossible. No matter who the Democrats nominate in 2016 Clinton, Biden, Cuomo when that individual picks up the phone and asks the Obama's to come and stump for them the black vote will be pretty much guaranteed.

Not only do Mitt Romney and Republicans have 2016 to worry about when it comes to minority voters overwhemingly going left, the prospect of this turning into a 30 year reality should be a very sobering wake up call for The Grand Old Party.



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